Monday, April 7, 2025

China Tariffs--Tong Wars Exclusion Strategy-- The Mongolian Octopus


Roots of Tong Wars

The Tong Wars were violent conflicts among Chinese immigrant secret societies, known as tongs, in the United States during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. These wars were deeply rooted in cultural, economic, and social factors tied to the migration and settlement of Chinese communities in America.

Origins of Tongs

  • Historical Background: Tongs originated in China as secret societies during the 17th century, particularly after the fall of the Ming dynasty. They were initially political organizations aiming to restore Ming rule but evolved into fraternal groups providing mutual aid and protection124.

  • Migration to America: Chinese immigrants brought the concept of tongs to the U.S. during the Gold Rush era (1850s). Early tongs in America served as protective associations for immigrants facing discrimination and harsh labor conditions13.

Development in the U.S.

  • Functions and Activities: Initially, tongs provided services such as legal aid, immigrant counseling, and community support. However, some tongs became involved in criminal activities like opium trade, gambling, prostitution, and extortion126.

  • Conflict Origins: Rivalries between tongs often stemmed from disputes over control of illegal enterprises, territorial dominance, and even human trafficking. The importation of women for forced prostitution was a major source of conflict24.

Tong Wars

  • Key Events: The Tong Wars erupted in Chinatowns across cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Cleveland, and New York. These conflicts involved hired enforcers (boo how doy or hatchetmen) who fought over turf and resources34.

  • Triggers: Disputes ranged from territorial control to personal grievances, such as unpaid debts or assassinations. Public challenges between rival factions often escalated into violent clashes45.

  • Impact of External Factors: Events like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake disrupted tong operations by destroying their revenue sources (e.g., brothels and opium dens), leading to a decline in their influence4.

Decline

By the 1920s, tong wars diminished as Chinese communities became less vulnerable to gang intimidation. Increased law enforcement and community efforts also contributed to their decline14.
The Tong Wars reflect a complex intersection of immigrant struggles, cultural adaptation, and organized crime within U.S. history.


https://www.perplexity.ai/search/roots-of-usa-china-tong-wars-eKSjnm1fQ5GuEn469HyvPw


usa objective in tariff escalation against china is eventual trade exclusion on global market


The United States' tariff escalation against China under President Donald Trump appears to be aimed at reshaping global trade dynamics, with significant implications for China's role in the international market. While the immediate goal is to address trade imbalances and perceived unfair practices, the broader objective may involve reducing China's influence in global trade.


Key Objectives Behind U.S. Tariff Escalation:

Addressing Trade Imbalances: The Trump administration has repeatedly cited the U.S.-China trade deficit as a justification for imposing steep tariffs, aiming to pressure China into purchasing more American goods and reducing its trade surplus with the U.S..


Countering Unfair Practices: The U.S. accuses China of subsidizing industries, imposing discriminatory taxes on foreign businesses, and engaging in intellectual property theft. These tariffs are framed as a response to these practices, with the goal of leveling the playing field for American companies.


Weakening China's Economic Position: The cumulative tariffs, which now exceed 54%, have significantly impacted China's economy by reducing exports to the U.S., slowing GDP growth, and harming key industries like manufacturing and high-tech exports. This could limit China's ability to dominate global markets.


Global Trade Realignment: By imposing universal tariffs on imports from other countries as well, the U.S. is signaling a broader shift away from multilateral trade systems toward bilateral agreements that prioritize American interests. This strategy could isolate China and encourage other nations to align more closely with the U.S..


Impacts on China:

China's retaliatory tariffs (34% on U.S. goods) and export restrictions on rare earth materials highlight its efforts to counteract these measures but also underscore its economic vulnerability in this conflict.


Analysts predict a decline in Chinese exports to the U.S. by up to 80%, along with broader economic challenges like deflationary pressures and job losses.


Conclusion:

While the U.S. has not explicitly stated that its ultimate goal is China's exclusion from global markets, its aggressive tariff policies and rhetoric suggest an intention to diminish China's economic influence globally. This strategy risks long-term disruptions in global trade systems while escalating tensions between the two largest economies.


https://www.perplexity.ai/search/usa-objective-in-tariff-escala-wx9tOSwjQ0.JtKYVqM_K6A


china-usa tariff escalation compared to tong wars


The escalating tariff conflict between the U.S. and China has drawn comparisons to historical conflicts marked by reciprocal aggression, such as the "Tong Wars" in Chinese-American history. While the Tong Wars were violent gang conflicts rooted in power struggles within Chinese immigrant communities in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the current U.S.-China tariff escalation reflects an economic "war" characterized by tit-for-tat measures with significant global implications.

Key Developments in the U.S.-China Tariff Escalation

Recent Actions: China has imposed a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, mirroring recent U.S. tariff increases under President Trump. This follows earlier Chinese tariffs of 10-15% on U.S. agricultural and energy goods in February and March 2025.

Broader Measures: Beyond tariffs, China has restricted exports of rare earth elements, banned dual-use goods to U.S. defense firms, and added American companies to its "unreliable entities" list.

U.S. Tariffs: The Trump administration recently raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 54%, more than doubling their levels at the start of his second term.

Comparison to Tong Wars

The analogy between the tariff escalation and Tong Wars lies in:

Retaliatory Dynamics: Both involve cycles of retaliatory actions, escalating tensions without clear resolution.

Power Struggles: The Tong Wars were about control within a community, while the trade war reflects a struggle for economic dominance between two global powers.

Collateral Damage: Just as innocent bystanders were often affected during Tong Wars, global markets and businesses are being disrupted by the trade conflict.

However, unlike the Tong Wars, which were localized and violent, the trade war operates on a geopolitical scale with economic tools rather than physical violence.

Outlook

Analysts suggest that a resolution is unlikely in the near term due to both sides' entrenched positions. The escalating measures risk further decoupling of the world's two largest economies, potentially leading to long-term global economic fragmentation.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/china-usa-tariff-escalation-co-c9DQewR.TYm8hrVeEy68sw

discuss the ongoing tariff escalation between the usa and china through an exclusion act-tong war lens

The ongoing tariff escalation between the United States and China can be analyzed through the lens of historical exclusionary policies and conflicts, such as the Chinese Exclusion Act and Tong Wars, which highlight patterns of economic and cultural antagonism.

Historical Context: Chinese Exclusion Act

The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 was a landmark in U.S. policy that explicitly targeted Chinese immigrants, barring their entry and denying citizenship to those already present. It reflected widespread anti-Chinese sentiment fueled by economic competition and racial prejudice during a period of labor unrest. This act institutionalized exclusionary measures that prioritized domestic labor interests while marginalizing foreign contributions, particularly from China. The act's legacy demonstrates how economic competition can escalate into systemic exclusion and hostility.

Economic Conflict: Tariff Escalation

The current U.S.-China tariff war mirrors these historical dynamics of exclusion in economic terms. President Trump recently threatened an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports if Beijing does not withdraw its retaliatory 34% tariffs, intensifying a tit-for-tat trade conflict. China's countermeasures include export restrictions on rare earth minerals, bans on dual-use goods, and the addition of U.S. firms to its "unreliable entity list," signaling a shift toward more aggressive retaliation.

Both nations are leveraging trade policies to assert dominance, with the U.S. aiming to reduce trade deficits and curb perceived abuses, while China defends its sovereignty and developmental interests. This escalation risks a prolonged economic decoupling between the world's largest economies.

Tong Wars Parallel: Cycles of Retaliation

The Tong Wars—a series of violent conflicts among Chinese immigrant groups in 19th-century America—offer another lens for understanding this escalation. These wars were marked by cycles of retaliation, driven by disputes over resources and territorial control. Similarly, the tariff war reflects a cycle of retaliatory measures where each side seeks to outmaneuver the other economically. The rhetoric from both governments—Trump’s accusations of “long-term trading abuses” and China’s denunciation of “unilateral intimidation”—echoes the factionalism seen in Tong Wars.

Conclusion

Viewed through these historical frameworks, the U.S.-China tariff escalation underscores recurring themes of exclusion, competition, and retaliation in bilateral relations. While modern economic tools replace physical violence or immigration bans, the underlying dynamics remain rooted in struggles for dominance and control over resources—a pattern that risks deepening divisions rather than fostering cooperation.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/discuss-the-ongoing-tariff-esc-HxpCRbGHSWatE7.g2cs2yg

Image: https://medium.com/@brothernumberthree/rise-and-fall-of-chinese-tongs-in-the-united-states-a8fc28997080

(X:) https://x.com/jameslangelle 



Tariffs Paleolinguistics--Alarmist Rhetoric--Media Framing, Doomsday Experts.

doomsday tariff analysts not helping market recovery

Recent tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump have caused significant turmoil in financial markets, with analysts and investors expressing concerns about their potential long-term impact. Here's a summary of the situation:

Market Reaction and Economic Concerns

Market Decline: The S&P 500 fell 10.5% over two days, marking its worst performance since March 2020. Other indices, like the Dow and Nasdaq, also experienced sharp declines.

Investor Sentiment: Analysts attribute the sell-off to uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, which are seen as higher than expected and likely to increase inflation while hindering economic growth.

Economic Risks: Economists warn of potential stagflation, as higher costs could reduce consumer spending and business investment. Retaliatory tariffs from trade partners add further risks of a recession.

Analyst Perspectives

Mixed Views on Recovery: Some experts argue that the market reaction is a temporary correction rather than an economic collapse, emphasizing the importance of long-term investment strategies. Others caution that prolonged uncertainty could lead to deeper economic challenges.

Policy Criticism: Critics describe the tariffs as economically harmful, raising production costs for U.S. companies and eroding competitiveness without clear benefits for domestic manufacturing.

Recommendations for Investors

Long-Term Focus: Many analysts advise maintaining a long-term perspective, avoiding panic selling, and focusing on high-quality companies with strong fundamentals.

Cautious Approach: Some recommend reducing market exposure during relief rallies and waiting for more clarity before making significant investments.

In summary, while markets are reeling from the immediate impact of the tariffs, experts suggest that disciplined investors can navigate this period by focusing on fundamentals and avoiding emotional decisions. However, sustained uncertainty could prolong market instability.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/doomsday-tariff-analysts-not-h-32cYdcuxTEm_f4bq2fp5ZQ

language ideology from media related to april 2025 market downturn

The media's portrayal of the April 2025 market downturn reveals distinct ideological patterns, particularly in how different outlets frame economic events. Here are some key observations:

Conservative Media's Approach

Minimization and Optimism: Right-leaning outlets like Fox Business and Newsmax downplayed the market downturn, focusing instead on unrelated topics or portraying the decline as a necessary correction. For example, Larry Kudlow emphasized long-term economic strategies while dismissing recession fears, and Fox News' Will Cain likened the economic challenges to a necessary withdrawal from government dependency.

Deflection of Blame: Conservative commentators often attributed the market issues to external factors or framed them as part of President Trump's broader economic vision. Rob Schmitt described the downturn as a byproduct of dismantling "globalist" policies, while others praised Trump's tariff policies despite their immediate negative impact on markets.

Echo Chamber Dynamics: Trump himself appeared to operate within a media echo chamber, consuming and amplifying narratives that supported his policies. While some conservative outlets like The Wall Street Journal criticized his tariff approach, others avoided direct critique, reflecting a broader ideological alignment with his administration.

Liberal and Mainstream Media's Critique

Focus on Economic Risks: Outlets like The Economist and CNN highlighted the potential dangers of Trump's tariff policies, describing them as erratic and poorly calculated. They emphasized the immediate market losses and the broader economic uncertainty these policies created.

Symbolic Criticism: Media coverage also focused on Trump's public behavior during the crisis, such as golfing amidst market turmoil. This was framed as indicative of detachment from economic realities, contrasting sharply with his earlier use of the stock market as a metric for success.

Language Ideologies in Media Coverage

The coverage reflects competing language ideologies:

Conservative Media: Emphasized resilience, optimism, and nationalistic rhetoric, framing economic challenges as necessary for long-term gains.

Mainstream Media: Adopted a critical tone, highlighting inconsistencies in policy and potential harm to everyday Americans.

These ideological divides underscore how media narratives shape public perceptions of economic events, often aligning with broader political affiliations.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/language-ideology-from-media-r-wYMBE9P0T4mAEbynykSShQ

sensationalist terms used by media to describe april 2025 market downturn

Media outlets have employed various sensationalist terms to describe the April 2025 market downturn, reflecting its severity and the political and economic context surrounding it:

"Annihilation Days": Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research referred to the aftermath of President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement as "Annihilation Days," likening the dramatic losses to historic crashes such as those in 1987, 2008, and 2020.

"Economic catastrophe reminiscent of the Great Depression": President Trump himself forecasted that a market crash under his rival Kamala Harris would mirror the Great Depression of 1929, emphasizing the gravity of potential economic consequences.

"Worst selloff since COVID-19 pandemic": Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the crash as a short-term reaction but acknowledged it marked the worst market selloff since early COVID-19 pandemic days in 2020.

"Heading for a 70s-style crisis": Analysts have drawn comparisons between current market conditions and the economic turmoil of the 1970s, citing high inflation and geopolitical factors as contributing elements.

"Trillions wiped out": Reports highlighted that recent tariff announcements erased trillions from equity valuations over two trading sessions, underscoring the scale of financial losses.

These terms illustrate both alarmist rhetoric and attempts to contextualize the downturn within historical and policy-driven frameworks.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/sensationalist-terms-used-by-m-QLZ7CKYZQw.0WsJOod7QcA

deliberate alarmist rhetoric used to describe april 2025 market downturn

Recent alarmist rhetoric surrounding the April 2025 market downturn has been fueled by several factors, with media and analysts emphasizing worst-case scenarios. Here's a summary of the rhetoric and its drivers:

Key Themes in Alarmist Rhetoric

Bear Market Comparisons

Analysts have drawn parallels between the current downturn and historical crashes, such as Black Monday in 1987 and the October 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 has dropped over 20% from its February highs, officially entering bear market territory, alongside the Nasdaq. This dramatic framing amplifies fears of a prolonged economic slump.

Tariff-Induced Panic

President Trump's new tariffs have been labeled as a major trigger for global market instability. Media outlets describe these tariffs as sparking a "global rout" and leading to intensified volatility, with predictions of cascading impacts on corporate earnings, inflation, and GDP growth.

Grim Forecasts for the S&P 500

Predictions suggest steep declines in the S&P 500 through mid-year, with losses potentially exceeding 20% by July. Such forecasts are accompanied by warnings of recession risks due to shrinking GDP and deteriorating corporate fundamentals.

Flight to Safety Narrative

Reports highlight investor behavior driven by fear rather than fundamentals, with significant rotations into defensive assets like utilities, consumer staples, cash, and gold. Gold prices have surged over 15% this year as investors seek refuge amidst uncertainty.

Economic Data as Tipping Points

Upcoming macroeconomic reports, including GDP estimates and inflation data, are framed as potential catalysts for further market declines. A negative GDP report later this month could confirm recession fears and trigger additional sell-offs.

Impact of Alarmist Language

The use of terms like "crash," "bear market," and "global rout" amplifies investor anxiety, potentially exacerbating sell-offs driven by sentiment rather than economic fundamentals. While some analysts emphasize caution and defensive strategies, others speculate on opportunities to profit from volatility.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/deliberate-alarmist-rhetoric-u-_HdO7QOJSIe0IbWhhQYkZw


Image : https://www.santacruzworks.org/news/cave-drawings-ai

(X:) https://x.com/jameslangelle 

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